Arjen joined ABN AMRO as a Senior economist in October 2009, where he started at the Country Risk Department. Since July 2010, he works in the Emerging Markets team of Group Economics, where he is mainly involved with analysing developments in emerging economies, assessing country risks and setting the bank’s country ratings. He currently focuses mainly at emerging Asia, including China and India. Arjen has wide expertise in the areas of emerging markets, international macro economics, country risk assessment and financial stability. After completing the study of Macro Economics at the Rijksuniversiteit Groningen and before joining ABN AMRO, Arjen worked for the Dutch central bank (De Nederlandsche Bank, DNB) from 1992-2009. At DNB, he worked in several roles in the areas of (inter)national macro economics and international finance.He has worked with key international financial institutions (ECB, IMF, BIS, OECD, Paris Club) and has advised the Dutch Ministry of Finance on several areas. From 2002 until 2004 he was responsible for the management of the USD and JPY reserves of DNB/ECB. .
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publication, Short Insight: China - A different way of celebrating New Year
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publication, Global Daily - China’s economy slowing in Q1
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publication, Emerging Asia Outlook 2021 - Luctor et Emergo
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publication, China Outlook 2021 - Our ten questions for the Year of the Ox
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publication, Global Daily - China macro data + Dutch political update
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publication, EM Outlook - Path to recovery from covid-19 shock will remain bumpy in 2021
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publication, Global Daily - China’s recovery more complete and even
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publication, Global Monthly - End of pandemic in sight, but testing times ahead
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publication, Short Insight - China: Normalisation continues
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publication, Global Daily - Vaccine news strengthens conviction in 2021 recovery
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publication, China Watch: Virus containment key to strong recovery
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publication, Global Daily - Why has China’s recovery been stronger?
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publication, Short Insight - China's recovery broadens
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publication, Global Daily - Will the EU Recovery Fund trigger an economic boom?
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publication, Macro Monthly - What if there is a second lockdown and what if there isn't?
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publication, Global Daily - US and China continued to recover in August
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publication, Emerging Asia Watch - Crawling out of the abyss
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publication, Short Insight: China - Supply/demand gap will narrow
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publication, China Watch - Vroomm, vrooommm
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publication, Global Daily - What do resurgent US infections mean for the reopening?
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publication, EM Watch - EMs and covid-19: Which countries are the most fragile?
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publication, Global Daily - How big are the risks from the US-China escalation?
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publication, Global Monthly - Why recovery will take time
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publication, China Watch - Restart and rebound
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publication, Short Insight - China's first annual contraction in decades
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publication, Global Daily - Watch out for the double dip
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publication, Global Daily - China on track for Q2 bounce
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publication, Global Daily - Recession will be deeper…rebound will take longer
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publication, Short Insight - China: 2020 growth forecast cut further on Covid-19
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publication, Global Daily - Downgrading our forecasts due to the coronavirus
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publication, Global Daily - Global monetary easing coming soon
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publication, Global Daily - Downgrading growth forecasts due to the virus
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publication, Emerging Asia Outlook - Short-term prospects spooked by corona crisis; effects likely temporary
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publication, Global Daily - The coronavirus and the global economy
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publication, Global Daily - Eurozone inflation to slow again
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publication, China Outlook 2020 - Growth to stabilise in Year of the Rat
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publication, Global Daily - Reasons not to be carried away by the US-China deal
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publication, Global Daily - Lagarde strikes dovish tone
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publication, Short Insight: Indonesia - Stable growth despite turmoil
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publication, Short Insight: China - Wanted: trade deal and more stimulus
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publication, India Watch - Modi blues
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publication, BRICS: An Emerging Commodity Coalition here to stay
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publication, Short Insight - China: Growth slows to 6% in Q3, monthly data improve
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publication, Asia Watch: Stimulus helps to keep regional slowdown gradual
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publication, Global Daily - Deals on thin ice
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publication, Global Daily - More protracted slowdown
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publication, Global Daily - Draghi’s gamble leaves Lagarde with work to do
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publication, China Watch: More support likely, as weakness deepens
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publication, Global Daily - Trade conflict continues to weigh on global growth
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publication, Macro Weekly - Trump slump drags the world along
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publication, Macro Weekly - Growth concerns mount, despite tariff delay
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publication, Short Insight - Tweets and twists in the trade/tech war
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publication, Short Insight: China - After the truce
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publication, Global Daily - Uncertainty lingers, despite trade truce
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publication, Global Daily - 25 or 50? That is the question
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publication, Asia Watch - Trade conflict hits Asian supply chains
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publication, China Watch - Growth forecasts down a bit on trade/tech conflict
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publication, Emerging Markets Watch - Portfolio flows to EMs: Trade tensions vs. Fed
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publication, Short Insight: India - World's largest elections bring Modi 2.0
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publication, Global Daily - Risks to China outlook shift to downside
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publication, China Watch - Oops, he did it again
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publication, Global Daily - What would be the impact of additional US-China tariffs?
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publication, South Korea Watch - Momentum improves after weak Q1
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publication, Short Insight - Indonesia: A second term for Jokowi
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publication, Global Daily - Is growth in China stabilising?
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publication, China Watch - Spring time, so here are the green shoots
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publication, Asia Watch - Elections near, headwinds are ebbing
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publication, Global Daily - Manufacturing recovery signs and Brexit vote in focus
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publication, Short Insight - China: Encouraging signs
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publication, Global Daily - Hiking rates back to zero would risk recession
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publication, Global Daily - Chances of early elections in Italy rise
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publication, Global Daily - Euro sovereign spreads set to rise
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publication, China Watch - Will the Pig arrive in time this year?
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publication, India Watch - Elections are coming
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publication, Global Daily - ECB to finally shift assessment to the downside
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publication, China Watch - More signs of stabilisation
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publication, Global Daily - What comes after the Brexit vote
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publication, Asia Outlook 2019 - A challenging year
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publication, Global Daily - Will policymakers save the day?
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publication, Trade war: Fear versus facts
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publication, India Outlook 2019 - Modi-fication
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publication, Global Daily - Truce for now
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publication, China Outlook 2019 - Stimulus offsets trade risks
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publication, Global Daily - Brexit hurdles remain
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publication, Short Insights - China: first signs of support kicking in
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publication, Short Insight - China: Gradual slowdown continues in Q3
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publication, Global Daily - US growth is probably peaking
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publication, Asia Watch - Weathering the storm
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publication, Emerging Markets Watch - Differentiation still the dominant theme
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publication, Global Daily - The macro impact of the US-China trade war
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publication, China Watch: The 200bn dollar question answered
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publication, South Korea Watch - Trade conflict biggest risk to growth
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publication, India Watch - Growth jumps to 2-year high despite market turmoil
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publication, Indonesia Watch - Plenty of risks, but real crisis not likely
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publication, China Watch - Pressures are building
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publication, Global Daily - Eurozone growth holds up, despite uncertainty
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publication, Global Daily - The limits to yuan weakness
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publication, Global Daily - An early warning sign on trade?
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publication, Short Insight - China: June data signal further (gradual) slowdown
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publication, Global Daily - Direct effect of trade war still limited
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publication, China Watch - China-US trade war escalates
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publication, Global Daily - Bundesbank dismisses operation twist
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publication, Asia Watch - The US giveth, the US taketh away
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publication, Global Daily - Trade war fears strike back
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publication, China Watch - Gradual slowdown to resume
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publication, Short Insight - China's cautious tightening approach
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publication, Global Daily - Market volatility unlikely to derail the Fed
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publication, Short Insight - Asian trade: China solid, bellwethers slowing
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publication, Global Daily - What could an Italy rescue look like?
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publication, Emerging Markets Watch - EM capital flows: Singling out the weakest links
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publication, Short Insight - India: better placed to deal with turmoil
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publication, Global Daily - German investment continues upswing
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publication, Global Daily - Fed's Barkin maintains hawkish line
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publication, Global trade watch - Trade war scenarios
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publication, Global Daily - A closer look at the new Fed Vice Chair
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publication, China Watch - Growth steady, trade risks rising
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publication, Global Daily - Swift hike cycle unlikely despite Nowotny remarks
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publication, Global Daily - Still time to avoid a real trade war
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publication, Global Daily - Could the Fed adopt a new policy framework?
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publication, Global Trade Watch - Taking stock of the US import tariff threat
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publication, Global Daily - BoE on course for May hike
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publication, China Watch - More centralism, more protectionism
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publication, Global Daily - Dovish Draghi signals slow exit
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publication, Asia Watch - Trade tensions risk to solid outlook
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publication, Global Daily - Will the ECB shift its QE bias?
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publication, Global Trade Watch - Rising protectionism risk for global trade recovery
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publication, Global Daily - When will the eurozone reach full employment?
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publication, China Watch - No barking but biting in the Year of the Dog
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publication, Indonesia Watch - Better placed to deal with market turmoil
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publication, Global Daily - How will the ECB’s rate guidance change?
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publication, Short Insight - Watching Pyongyang from Pyeongchang
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publication, Global Daily - Fed speakers unconcerned by market correction
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publication, Global Daily - Upgrading our eurozone GDP forecast
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publication, Short Insight - Asia: US import tariffs highlight risks protectionism
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publication, Global Daily - Eurozone labour market slack still high
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publication, China Watch - Goldilocks and the panda bears
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publication, Short Insight - Assessing China's December trade and lending data
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publication, Global Daily - The narrative behind the Treasury market sell-off
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publication, India Watch - Well placed to stay investor darling in 2018
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publication, South Korea Watch - Moonlight and shadows
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publication, Global Daily - ECB sees weak inflation despite upgrades to growth
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publication, Asia Watch - Still in the lead in 2018
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publication, Global Daily - ECB fills core gap by buying more Irish bonds
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publication, China Watch - Gradual slowdown in 2018, risks remain
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publication, Global Daily - Angela's political headaches
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publication, China Watch - Growth is slowing, not collapsing
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publication, Global Daily - A day of two halves: eurozone booms, China slows
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publication, Global Daily - Euro exports to BRICS booming
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publication, Short Insight - Chinese trade in focus as Trump visits Beijing
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publication, India Watch - On its way to become fastest growing giant again
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publication, Global Daily - Catalonia stalemate continues
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publication, China Watch - Growth still above target as CPC convenes
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publication, Global Daily - What happens if Taylor rules the Fed?
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publication, Global Daily - German economy continues to power ahead
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publication, Global Daily - China on the radar this week
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publication, Global Trade Watch - Global trade recovers despite ‘Trump risks’
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publication, Global Daily - Draghi strikes dovish tone
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publication, Asia Outlook - Still outperforming, risks remain
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publication, Global Daily - Lower core govie bond supply
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publication, Global Daily - BoE signals rate hike
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publication, China Watch - A closer look at China’s imports and exports
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publication, Global Daily - ECB: exchange rate matters less
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publication, Macro Weekly - North Korea: the untold story
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publication, Global Daily - Eurozone core inflation: rising trend?
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publication, Indonesia Watch - Enjoying investment grade
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publication, Global daily - Eurozone growth still above trend
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publication, China Watch - Upgrading our growth forecasts
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publication, Global Daily - Draghi at Jackson Hole…the sequel
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publication, Global Daily - Yellen signals inflation uncertainty
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publication, South Korea Watch - Growth firms despite North Korea
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publication, India Watch - New GST should support long-term growth
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publication, FX Watch - CNY: Short-term strength, modest depreciation in long run
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publication, Asia Outlook-Firmer China offsets weaker India
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publication, Global Daily - The trouble with oil prices
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publication, Global Daily - Fed hikes, but struggling with low inflation
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publication, China Watch - Views from Shanghai
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column, Global Daily - No rush for Fed to shrink balance sheet
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publication, Global Daily - Austria the next political battleground
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publication, China Watch - Growth slows after tightening
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publication, Global Daily - Mersch ... ECB heading for balanced risk assessment
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publication, Global Daily - Fed preview: Looking beyond the soft data in Q1
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publication, Global Daily - French and UK elections in focus
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publication, China Watch - Growth peaks in Q1
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publication, India Watch - Better placed to deal with ‘Trump risks’
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publication, China Watch - Economy firms, more targeted tightening
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publication, Global Daily - Fed preview: What will happen next?
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publication, Global Trade Watch - Potential impact from protectionism
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publication, Global Daily - Peak inflation
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publication, Asia Outlook - Trade gains outweigh Trump risks
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publication, Global Daily - US nearing full employment
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publication, Global Daily - What does Trumpflation mean for Asia?
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publication, Global Trade Watch - Will the nascent trade recovery be Trump-resistant?
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publication, Global Daily - ECB preview: What is priced in?
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publication, China Watch - Macro data show improvement
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publication, Asia Watch - Malaysia still fragile
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publication, Global Daily - BoE set to cut interest rates
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publication, Global Daily - More Abenomics expected
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publication, FX Watch - Revision in Asian FX forecasts
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publication, Asia Watch - Brexit fall-out limited
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publication, Global Daily - ECB starts corporate QE with a bang
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publication, China Watch - Digging into the debt dynamics
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publication, India Watch - More reforms needed to stay investor darling
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publication, China Watch - Short-term gains, long-term pains
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publication, Global Daily - ECB remains in easing mode
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publication, China Watch - Soft but bumpy landing to continue
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publication, Global Daily - China's trade data weak, although distorted
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publication, China - Balancing act goes on in Year of the Monkey
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publication, Global Daily - Expecting a more dovish Yellen
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publication, Asia - Resilience despite China hiccups, but risks remain
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publication, Global Daily - China's slowdown remains gradual
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publication, China Watch - ‘Chinaphobia’ overdone
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publication, Emerging Markets Outlook - The ‘Force’ abates: modest recovery in 2016
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publication, EM FX Weekly - PBoC seeking a weaker yuan?
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publication, Indonesia Watch - Still many challenges in 2016
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publication, Global Daily - Euro inflation going up
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publication, China’s growth to slow further in 2016 and 2017
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publication, Asia – China, world trade and Fed shape 2016 outlook
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publication, Global Daily - Impact of shift in Fed call
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publication, Global Trade Watch - Should we worry about global trade?
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publication, China Watch - Hard landing fears have eased
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publication, Global Daily - Fed doves show preferences
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publication, FX Watch - Asian FX recovery to last?
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publication, India Watch - Resilient amidst EM turmoil
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publication, Global Daily - China drags global manufacturing
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publication, Global Daily - Euro inflation back in the red
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publication, Daily Insight - Global manufacturing weakness
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publication, China Watch - Ten urgent questions
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publication, Global Daily - The Fed-China sandwich
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publication, Global Daily - QE helping eurozone growth
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publication, Macro Focus - The top 6 emerging markets at risk
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publication, Global Daily - Markets rebound
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publication, Global Daily - ‘Better Tuesday’ for markets
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publication, Asia outlook - Sailing stormy waters
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publication, Global Daily - US consumer comeback
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publication, EM FX Weekly - Change in China’s FX regime
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publication, China Watch - A closer look at China’s currency moves
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publication, Global Daily - More CNY weakness ahead?
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publication, Global Daily - The yuan devalued
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publication, FX Watch - Weaker Asian FX outlook
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publication, China Watch - Volatile stock markets, improving data
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publication, South Korea - Growth SubMERSion
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publication, EM FX Weekly - Delay in CNY liberalization?
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publication, Global Daily - Greek proposal a litmus test
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publication, Global Watch - Global trade regaining traction
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publication, FX Watch - A Q&A on the yuan’s SDR inclusion
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publication, Indonesia Watch - External deficits have fallen, but risks remain
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publication, Global Daily - The US consumer comeback
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publication, EM FX Weekly - CEEMA FX in action
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publication, China Watch - Signs of stabilisation
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publication, Asia outlook - Resilient, despite China-made slowdown
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publication, EM FX Weekly - Steady or weaker yuan?
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publication, China Watch - Weak data, more stimulus
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publication, Global Daily - China cuts policy rates further
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publication, India Watch - Jewel in the crown again?
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publication, EM FX Weekly - China stimulus and weak dollar
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Global Daily - FOMC's Dudley eyes 2015 hike
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Macro Focus - China slowdown and commodity imports
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China Watch - Growth further down, but still ‘on target’
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Global Daily - Eurozone accelerates
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China Watch - Managing the slowdown
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FX Watch - HKD peg to hold
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Global Daily - German wage lift off
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Asia outlook - India makes up for China slowdown
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Global Daily - Positive surprise from China
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China Watch - Weak start to the Year of the Sheep
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India Watch - New hopes, old risks
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China Watch - Reassuring data
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Global Daily - IMF downgrades, but positives mount
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Global Daily - Long rates low for longer
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Cheap oil a blessing for Asia
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Global Daily - Who is afraid of lower oil?
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China Watch - 2015: reforms, slowdown and stimulus
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Emerging Asia: Oil and food drive inflation down
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Indonesia - Jokowi's fresh start
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publication, FX Watch - Weaker Asian FX in 2015-16
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Global Daily - US manufacturing powering ahead
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Global Daily - China changes tack
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China - Gradual slowdown to continue
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Asia - Still global growth engine, despite China’s slowdown
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column, EM Outlook - Recovery beckons
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Global Macro View - Ten Big Questions for 2015
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Global Daily - The ECB's credibility problem
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Macro Focus - A closer look at Chinese imports
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China - Growth slows less than markets expected
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publication, Global Daily - China's growth slows
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publication, Global Daily - Investor sentiment sours
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Emerging Asia - Still in the lead
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Asia Watch - Turmoil in Hong Kong
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Global Daily - China's flash PMI firms
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Global Daily - Fed signals more hikes
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publication, Global Daily - France in stormy waters
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China Watch - Signs of cooling illustrate rebalancing
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South Korea - Stimulus supports sentiment
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India Watch - Less moody under Modi
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China Watch - Authorities remain vigilant
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publication, Global Daily - Carney damps BoE rate hike talk
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Turkey Watch - Resilient, but risks remain
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Emerging Europe: Headwinds turn eastward
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EM Outlook - 2014Q2 - Turning the corner
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Global Daily - Heating up again
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Global Daily - BoJ sticks for now
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Emerging Europe Watch - Will the Crimea conflict spoil the party?
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Global Daily - Markets brushing off Ukraine
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Global Daily - Crimea sentiment improves
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Global Daily - Russian roulette
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Daily Insight - ECB complacent
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Daily Insight - A close eye on Ukraine and China
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Global Daily - Ukraine crisis
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Emerging Europe Watch - Tensions in Ukraine
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Emerging markets: Coping with volatility
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EM Outlook - 2014Q1 - Coping with volatility
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Emerging Europe: Shelter from the storm
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Global Daily - EM central banks fight back
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Russia Watch: An energy-driven Olympic giant
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Turkey Watch - Under fire again
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Emerging Europe Watch - From Russia with love
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Slovenia’s stress test well-received
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Daily Insight - It's politics, stupid
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Poland Watch - Moving up a gear
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Emerging Europe: Higher growth expected in 2014 and 2015
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EM Outlook - 2013Q4 - More favourable tide ahead
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Emerging Europe Watch: Some tailwinds, some risks
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Emerging Europe Watch: Ukraine's external pains
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Emerging Europe Watch: Central Europe versus the fringe
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Emerging European assets profit from Fed's delay
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EM capital flows in the spotlight
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Turkey: feeling the heat
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Emerging Europe: Growth improves thanks to eurozone
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Turkey's structural progress and challenges
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Egypt's political turmoil not a trigger for an oil price spike
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Latvia will join eurozone in 2014
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Turkey: Coping with political and market turmoil
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Russia: Growth disappoints
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MENA: No summer after Arab Spring
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Emerging Europe: Room for improvement
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Emerging Europe Watch: Exit Excessive Deficit Procedure
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Poland: Sharp slowdown, but no panic
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Russia: Hard Man appoints dovish lady?
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Emerging Europe: Southern and Western headwinds have not yet subsided