Global Monthly – Are labour shortages for real?

by: Sandra Phlippen , Bill Diviney , Aline Schuiling , Nora Neuteboom , Arjen van Dijkhuizen

  • The global economy continues to rebound rapidly following the easing of lockdown measures
  • This month, we upgrade both our eurozone and US GDP growth forecasts for 2021
  • One possible spanner in the works for the recovery is a potential looming labour shortage
  • We find that despite signs of a shortage, aggregate labour demand is still well below pre-pandemic levels, and this will likely be met with ample supply once government support measures are eased
  • Regional updates: in the eurozone, economies are bouncing back after an early easing of lockdowns, and in the Netherlands, improving confidence points to a sharp rebound in consumption
  • In the US, goods consumption is easing, but this should be offset by the services recovery
  • Cost pressures continue to rise in China, prompting a policy response from Beijing

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Global-Monthly-June-2021.pdf (475 KB)