Global Monthly – What overheating could look like

by: Bill Diviney , Arjen van Dijkhuizen , Aline Schuiling , Nora Neuteboom

  • The eurozone is finally starting to close the recovery gap with the US, with vaccinations enabling countries to take their first significant reopening steps
  • Meanwhile, surging inflation is stoking fears that the US economy will overheat
  • While not our base case, we find that such a scenario would ultimately drive a sharp rise in interest rates that would tip the US economy into a recession – with global macro and market spill overs
  • Regional updates: in the eurozone, and the Netherlands, a rapid vaccination pace and lockdown easing steps mean that these economies look to have turned a corner
  • In the US, growth momentum looks to be peaking, and we expect a cooling in H2 2021
  • We take a special look at the pandemic situation in India, and the economic implications

 

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Global-Monthly-May-2021.pdf (407 KB)
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