Since the start of 2019, the CRB index has recovered by 7% in line with a recovery in oil and most base metal prices.
The recovery in equity markets and some improvement in overall investor sentiment also helped. Some of this was triggered by new hopes that China and the US may come to a deal on the trade front.
For 2019 we expect that most commodity prices will increase even further. We think that positive commodity market fundamentals, slower but continued global economic growth and a weakening of the dollar will provide a solid base for higher prices.
We expect the CRB index to gain another 5-7% for this year because of a further recovery in oil prices, higher precious metal prices and higher base metal prices.
Agriculturals are expected to show a more divided performance and will therefore contribute less to a recovery of the CRB index.Monthly-Commodity-Insights-Jan-2019.pdf (1 MB)