US Outlook 2019: Slowdown, not recession

by: Bill Diviney

  • The US economy has performed exceptionally well in 2018, despite the slowdown in global growth
  • However, we do not think current growth rates are sustainable
  • Cooling investment, fading fiscal stimulus, and Fed tightening are likely to drive a slowdown – but not a recession
  • The unemployment rate should continue to fall, but – beyond a potential tariff boost – inflationary pressures will remain benign
  • We expect the Fed to end its rate hike cycle in the first half of 2019, sooner than it is currently signalling
  • Trade policy, potential impeachment proceedings, and elevated corporate debt pose downside risks to the outlook


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181214-US-Outlook-2019.pdf (451 KB)