Netherlands outlook 2019: Slowing growth

by: Nico Klene

  • Dutch economic growth is set to continue in the next two years, though easing slightly each year
  • Growth will decelerate in 2018 to 2.6%. Our forecast was reduced on disappointing growth in the summer and a less positive outlook. The same factors will also depress growth in 2019
  • In 2019 GDP growth will slow further, with our forecast being lowered from 2½% to 2%
  • And GDP growth will be slightly lower still in 2020
  • Exports and domestic spending continue to contribute to growth in all years
  • The economic outlook is still fairly favourable, but potential pitfalls persist, notably the trade conflict with the US and Brexit
  • Unemployment will not fall much more despite sustained – albeit weakening – jobs growth. Most jobs are going to newcomers in the labour market
  • Inflation will jump in 2019 due to the increases in the low VAT rate and energy tax. At the start of 2020 the impact of the VAT increase will drop out of the inflation figure. Inflation can then fall sharply again.
Dutch-Economy-in-Focus-Dec18.pdf (165 KB)