Positive outlook for the CRB Index reflected in underlying commodities’ performance

by: Hans van Cleef , Georgette Boele , Casper Burgering

Energy prices have risen during the past three months. Energy accounts for roughly 40% of the CRB index. This positive sentiment in energy was mostly offset by the declines in most base and precious metals, even despite the recent uptick in precious metals and agri.

We expect more support for the index as we revised our oil and gas price forecasts higher. Supply related issues and strong demand are likely to remain supportive for these commodities. We also expect higher gold prices based on a deterioration in sentiment towards the US dollar, a recovery of the CNY and a peak in 10y US Treasury yields.

We expect deficits in copper and nickel due to strong demand. With LME inventories under pressure, more support for copper and nickel prices can be expected. Finally, we expect price declines for most tropical commodities as abundant supply and strong harvests cap the upside.

Monthly-Commodity-Update-Oct-2.pdf (581 KB)