Housing market monitor – New-build gap not yet closed

by: Philip Bokeloh

  • Lack of housing continues to push up prices …
  • … and puts a brake on house purchases
  • New construction picking up, but not enough to close the gap
181001-Housing-Market-Monitor-September.pdf (178 KB)

The transaction volume continues to decline. The deceleration was initially confined to the Randstad conurbation, but is now also visible in the other provinces. One important reason for the drop is the substantial housing shortage. The number of properties for sale is falling. So buyers have less and less choice. We expect purchases to decrease further.

The lack of housing continues to drive up valuations. In August the price index for pre-owned housing rose 9.3% yoy. The average price level is now 3.7% above the pre-crisis level. But there are large regional differences. Due to the higher-than-expected outcome in August, we have slightly raised our estimate for this year. We expect prices to continue climbing, but at a steadily slower pace.

New construction is adding to the housing supply, but stills falls well short of demand. Government has largely devolved the responsibility for achieving the house construction target to municipal level. Boosting house construction is therefore a key priority in the recent municipal coalition agreements.

In addition, the agreements outline initiatives to promote housing mobility. Making the housing stock more sustainable is also high on the municipal agenda. As this subject is still in its infancy, the municipalities have welcomed the new Crisis and Recovery Act which gives them more scope to experiment.