Commodity price support from fundamentals ahead

by: Casper Burgering , Nadia Menkveld , Georgette Boele , Hans van Cleef

Prices of most commodities were under pressure over the last three months, with strong declines in base metals markets.

The main factors for base metals price pressure were non-fundamental factors such as the trade war fears, emerging markets stress, concerns over the Chinese economy and the strengthening of the US dollar. A further escalation of the trade conflict looks likely, which will keep prices low and volatile.

Oil prices managed to gain some pace, due to supply disruptions. Oil prices are expected to increase further on stable demand and a shortfall in supply. Natural gas (TTF) increased significantly because of stronger electricity demand during the hot summer season in Europe (mainly from air conditioning).

As soon as the trade war turmoil eases and policymakers come to their senses, positive fundamental drivers in most commodity markets will dominate price trends again during Q4.

Monthly-Commodity-Update_Sept.pdf (895 KB)