Fireworks for commodities in 2018?

by: Georgette Boele , Casper Burgering , Hans van Cleef , Nadia Menkveld

The end of the year is traditionally the time to take stock. What did 2017 bring us? What are the takeaways from 2017 to 2018? And what do we hope to leave behind us? The commodities experts of ABN AMRO have summed up the results for the various commodities.

Commodity-End-Of-Year-Special-December-2017_ENG.pdf (500 KB)
Download

All in all, 2017 was an eventful year. Trump’s agenda was closely watched and clearly influenced the fortunes of the various commodities. And China – a voracious consumer of many commodities – was obviously also a rich source of talking points among analysts. The buoyant economic mood in China led to euphoria in the metal markets, whilst agricultural commodity prices also advanced on accelerating Chinese demand. In 2017, OPEC showed the world it was capable of concerted action: its production cuts brought more balance to the oil market.

In 2018, the US, China and the OPEC countries will remain very much on our radar. The expectation is that OPEC will keep a steady hand on the helm and that the Chinese economy will avoid a hard landing. This augers well for demand in the metal, oil and agricultural commodity markets.

Precious metal prices, by contrast, will probably lose lustre in 2018, mainly due to the moderate rise in the US dollar and US Treasury yields. Platinum prices will remain under pressure as diesel cars continue to lose ground.

Again in 2018 we will keep you posted on all commodity related subjects.