Euro Rates Watch – Strong fundamentals should support new 7y DSL

by: Kim Liu

  • On Wednesday, the DSTA will launch its inaugural 7y benchmark for EUR 5-7bn via the 27th Dutch Direct Auction
  • We expect an issuance amount of EUR 6bn while we see fair value at +12bps vs the German DBR 1.75% February 2024
  • Dutch bonds have been resilient in the Catalan escalation while we also expect hardly any impact when the new Dutch government will be announced tomorrow
  • Strong fundamentals and favourable net supply dynamics will be supportive of Dutch bonds in the short and medium term
  • We judge that the 7y Dutch area provides value in a Dutch 2s7s10s fly, compared to shorter dated DSLs (which mature in 2020/2021) and vs 7y RFGBs
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