Commodities: Approaching a crossroad

by: Georgette Boele , Casper Burgering , Nadia Menkveld , Hans van Cleef

Since 15 March the CRB has risen by more than 3% mainly because of a recovery in oil and metal prices. An improvement in outlook for the global economy and global trade has been supportive as well as lower US treasury yields. We expect the CRB index to remain within a 180-195 range for the coming three months as individual commodities diverge. Both oil and gold prices are approaching a crossroad: will gold prices break higher? And will OPEC expand their production cut agreement or not? Towards the end of 2017 and for 2018 we expect higher prices in oil, precious metals and industrial metal prices. This is mainly because we expect a further improvement in the global economy, stronger demand for commodities as well as a lower US dollar.

Monthly-Commodity-Update-April-2017.pdf (622 KB)
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Energy: Oil prices captured within mixed signals

Precious metals: We upgraded our precious metals price outlook

Base metals: Supply-side in base metal markets sets the tone, while demand remains good

Ferrous metals: Supply pressures increased, but demand is still stable

Agri: Sugar and soya prices to remain under pressure