ABN AMRO Eurozone Watch – Macron set for presidency

by: Nick Kounis , Aline Schuiling , Kim Liu

  • Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will contest the second round of the French presidential elections
  • Election polls place Macron far ahead of Le Pen in a second round run-off suggesting a Macron presidency is now very likely
  • Macron’s agenda for economic reforms and consolidating government finances is market friendly…
  • …but he will still face major obstacles in passing his programme
  • Still, the negative market scenario of a Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon run-off has been avoided
  • The outcome should be positive for French government bonds, the euro and risk sentiment…
  • …though markets partially priced in a positive outcome in the run-up to the elections, which could limit the reaction to some extent

DISCLAIMER: This report has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead. This report is marketing communication and not investment research and is intended for professional and eligible clients only.

French-elections-first-round.pdf (335 KB)