Monthly commodity update – Stabilisation followed by higher commodity prices

by: Georgette Boele , Casper Burgering , Hans van Cleef , Frank Rijkers

The third quarter has started on a weak footing. The CRB index has declined by around 5% since the end of June. This is mainly the result of a 10% drop in oil prices, 15% decline in soybean prices and 5-10% decline in corn and natural gas prices. Oil and soybean prices had risen too sharply up to Q3. Profit taking ahead and during the holiday season – characterised by lower liquidity – pushed prices lower. We expect commodity prices to stabilise in the coming weeks. Oil prices should bottom out from the low USD 40s. In September we expect drivers to become positive again. We also expect gold and silver prices to rise later this quarter. For agricultural commodities we expect prices to have some upside potential due to disrupting production factors mainly caused by weather related issues such as La Niña and heavy rainfall in Europe over the past two months.

Monthly-Commodity-update-August-2016.pdf (483 KB)