FX Convictions – Short NZD/CAD closed

by: Georgette Boele

DISCLAIMER: This report has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead. This report is marketing communication and not investment research and is intended for professional and eligible clients only.

  • Our stop loss (profit protection) got hit in NZD/CAD at 0.9350…
  • …and we have removed it from our conviction list
  • Meanwhile, we have lowered our GBP/JPY stop loss from 148 to 140
  • We keep in place our HUF long vs EUR, JPY long vs GBP convictions
160726-FX-Conviction-Update.pdf (63 KB)
Download

Stop loss (profit protection) hit in NZD/CAD

The slide in the New Zealand dollar came to a halt as financial markets have now fully anticipated a 50bp cut by the RBNZ. In addition, lower crude oil prices have weighed on the CAD in recent days. As a result, our stop loss (=profit protection) at 0.9350 in short New Zealand dollar versus Canadian dollar got hit. So we have removed the call from our conviction list. The total return on this position is 1.5%.

Lower stop loss in GBP/JPY

Meanwhile, we have lowered our GBP/JPY stop loss from 148 to 140. Recently, the GBP has declined because of weaker than expected economic data. Meanwhile, the yen also strengthened after Nikkei reported that fiscal stimulus is likely to be smaller than previously reported (JPY 6 trillion versus 10-20 trillion). In addition, only about JPY 2 trillion supplementary budget will be passed this year.

We keep in place our HUF long versus EUR and JPY long versus GBP

We keep our HUF long versus EUR and JPY long versus GBP high conviction views in place. For more details please refer to our FX Convictions – Short GBP/JPY, and FX Convictions – Add HUF long versus EUR.