In this publication: We estimate the likelihood of the British remaining in the European Union at 65%. If the UK votes to leave, we envisage four scenarios. The differences between these scenarios are connected with the possible course of the negotiations on the exit arrangements for the UK and with the risk that more countries may turn their back on the EU. In the more extreme scenarios, the growth of the Dutch economy in 2017 will be reduced by up to 1.75%. This is rather more than for the eurozone because the UK is a more important export partner for the Netherlands. A Brexit would have a greater-than-average impact on the following industries in the Netherlands: textiles, chemicals, refined petroleum products, electrical & optical equipment, mining and quarrying, rubber & plastic products, business services, food, beverages & tobacco. A Brexit would have a smaller-than-average impact on the following industries: construction, real estate activities, financial services, computer services and information technology. In the long term, Dutch GDP is also likely to be lower.
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