Chinese transition should not hinder a recovery of commodity prices

by: Hans van Cleef , Frank Rijkers , Casper Burgering , Georgette Boele

Monthly-Commodity-Update-Nov-2015.pdf (534 KB)

In October, the CRB traded sideways within narrow ranges. A break higher failed to continue as pressure on oil prices returned. Also the stronger US dollar – due to expectations about the US monetary policy (and indirectly the ECB) –weighed on commodity prices. We believe that the market is somewhat overreacting regarding its negative outlook on China. We expect the Chinese GDP growth to stabilise in Q4-2015, followed by an ongoing transition and gradual slowdown in 2016. The authorities are still able and willing to add support, which has started to work its way into the economy. Although the actual growth number eases, the economy is becoming larger and larger. This translates in ongoing strong Chinese demand for commodities. If global demand for commodities improve, and supply cuts are filtered through into the prices, the CRB should be able to benefit.