Supply side corrections provide price impulse for commodities

by: Georgette Boele , Casper Burgering , Hans van Cleef , Frank Rijkers

Monthly-Commodity-Update-Oct-20151.pdf (480 KB)

In September, the CRB stabilised after the low set in August. Some improvement in sentiment towards China and more supportive supply related news supported commodity prices. In addition, a weaker US dollar and the pricing out of a possible Fed rate hike this year also helped. There have been announcements of supply cutbacks in oil, copper and zinc. This tightens the supply/demand balance for these cyclical commodities. We expect this trend to continue and demand to pick up. Recently, we have delayed our Fed call of tightening policy from December to 2016. Therefore, we no longer see a strong US dollar rally this year. As a result, this will no longer be a negative force this year. For the remainder for this year we have a neutral outlook for the CRB, because uncertainty about global growth remains. For next year, we are more positive on commodity prices, because of a stronger economic outlook and, hence demand outlook for cyclical commodities.