FX Convictions – We close our EUR/USD short

by: Georgette Boele , Roy Teo

151015-FX-Convictions.pdf (176 KB)

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We are closing our long US dollar conviction call versus the euro after almost 2 years with a total return of close to 16%

Since 20 November 2013, we have recommended to be short the euro versus the US dollar. This FX conviction has been one of our best performing calls with a total return of close to 16%. Following our change in view that the Fed would delay its first rate hike to 2016 and the change in FX forecasts communicated last week (FX and Precious Metals Watch – Impact of our new Fed call), we decided to take our short euro/long US dollar off our high conviction list. It is likely that EUR/USD in the near-term will continue to move higher in wake of the pricing out of a possible Fed rate hike this year. Moreover, the recovery in the US dollar we expect for the coming months is relatively modest. Therefore, we close this high conviction call. The EUR/USD will probably only start to fall again more convincingly during the course of next year when Fed rate hikes approach. That might provide a new opportunity at some point in the future.

We also close our high conviction short in Singapore dollar versus the US dollar with a loss of 2%

The Singapore dollar (SGD) has strengthened by about 2% against the US dollar and 1% against its trade weighted basket of currencies since the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) monetary policy decision on 14 October. The MAS reduced the slope of appreciation of S$NEER slightly as advance estimates show that the Singapore economy narrowly avoided a technical recession in the third quarter against market expectations of a 0.1% qoq contraction. Economic growth in the second quarter was also revised higher from -4% qoq to -2.5% qoq. This was less dovish than our forecast that the MAS will shift the S$NEER policy bias to neutral. We think that core inflation will edge higher due to favourable base year effects. Hence the MAS is unlikely to shift towards a more dovish bias next year, supported by the view that global growth should gradually improve in 2016. As a result, we have revised our 2015 and 2016 year end USD/SGD forecast to 1.40 (from 1.44) and 1.46 (from 1.50) respectively. We have also closed out our short SGD view from our high conviction FX list, realizing a loss of 2%

151015 FX convictions