Monthly Commodity Update – Nervousness feeds volatility

by: Hans van Cleef , Casper Burgering , Georgette Boele , Frank Rijkers

ABN-AMRO-Monthly-Commodity-Update-Aug-2015.pdf (480 KB)

Developments on Chinese stock markets have triggered market fears about the pace of the country’s economic slowdown, with a clear impact on commodity markets. Although the sharp stock market correction adds downside risks to the economy, these should not be overstated. Recent macro-economic data point to economic stabilisation on the back of large-scale easing measures. Still, the authorities’ policy reaction to the stock market correction poses questions on their reform commitments. Although China faces several downside risks, it has large buffers and the authorities have many tools at their disposal, so we expect the slowdown to remain gradual. Commodity prices dropped reflecting market worries on the demand outlook on top of the existing (over-)supply issues. The CRB index fell to the lowest level since May 2003, so even below 2009 crisis levels. We expect that we have seen most of the downward correction and expect commodities to find a floor in the coming (volatile) weeks.