Worries about Greece appear to have been replaced by concerns about China and the global cycle more generally. It has been a bad start to the year, with global economic growth disappointing. However, advanced economy demand is stepping up a gear, and global industrial production will likely follow. Although downside risks to China’s outlook persist, we still expect a soft landing. Meanwhile, the Fed looks on track for a September rate hike, while the BoE is likely to wait until 2016. Greece appears to be moving closer to an ESM deal, but Grexit risks could well return in coming months.
Macro-Weekly-August-8-2015-Advanced-economies-stepping-up.pdf (250 KB)