Commodities: market is too negative

by: Georgette Boele , Casper Burgering , Hans van Cleef , Frank Rijkers

Commodity prices came under heavy pressure because of concerns that weakness in Chinese equities would have a negative impact on the Chinese economy and of the outlook for metals’ demand. In addition, the Greek debt crisis also clouded the commodity demand outlook. However, we do not expect a major slowdown in the Chinese economy as the Chinese authorities have an enormous arsenal to support the economy. Currently, market sentiment towards Chinese growth is more negative than our projection. Therefore, we expect commodity markets the shrug off the negative vibes and push metal prices (base metals and platinum) prices higher. Meanwhile, we expect a possible Iran-deal and supply glut to continue to weigh on oil prices. Weather-related events remain dominant in agriculturals.