Monthly Commodity Update – Still Positive on Cyclicals

by: Georgette Boele , Casper Burgering , Hans van Cleef , Frank Rijkers

Monthly-Commodity-Update-Mar-20151.pdf ()

In our view, the slide in oil prices is fantastic news for the global economy and will provide a considerable tailwind to economic growth in the coming months. Net importers like the US, eurozone member states and Asia’s largest economies, will benefit from the large windfall. This will push up economic growth, which eventually is supportive for commodity demand. We hence expect fundamentals for cyclical commodities to improve, leading to a recovery in WTI as well as most base and precious metal prices (excluding gold). However, an important condition is that investors have cleared a substantial part of their net long positions. Meanwhile, grain prices will likely remain under pressure in the coming months due to high supply. Cocoa is the only agricultural commodity that shows higher prices supported by weakening in production.