In our view, the financial markets are far too gloomy about the global economy. We anticipate that better economic data releases will lift this downbeat sentiment and to support cyclical commodities with a relatively tight supply and demand balance. For example, we expect base metals, which are also relatively resilient to developments in the US dollar, to do well. Still, oversupply will remain a challenge for energy markets and we therefore expect oil prices to remain depressed in 2015. Moreover, a rise in the US dollar will also be a negative for oil and gold prices next year. And oversupply remains an issue for grains as well as for a possible lower (over-)supply for soft commodities like coffee and sugar. Meanwhile, a possible spread of Ebola to Ivory Coast and Ghana could threaten the export of (well supplied) cocoa.
Please find the full report of our Quarterly Commodity Outlook here: