Overcapacity dampens commodity price expectations

by: Marijke Zewuster , Casper Burgering , Georgette Boele , Hans van Cleef , Frank Rijkers

Quarterly-Commodity-Outlook-Q3-2014.pdf ()

We remain positive on the global economy going forward. We see headwinds fading for the emerging markets and expect general investor sentiment to remain constructive. This will mainly support cyclical commodities with a relatively tight demand and supply balance, especially if this is not already reflected in prices. While we maintain a positive outlook on base metals, we anticipate lower oil and precious metals prices. We expect ample oil supply and a lower risk premium to push oil prices down. In addition, we foresee the Fed becoming more hawkish. This will lead to an upward adjustment in interest rates for 2015, which could have a substantial negative impact on precious metals and oil prices. Meanwhile, agriculturals and soft commodities may feel the impact of a potential El Niño, but the chances of a strong EL Niño have diminished.