Weekly FX – AUD and NZD still look toppish

by: Georgette Boele

Sentiment on AUD, NZD, and CAD is clearly deteriorating. Last week they were not able to profit from the pressure on the USD, because the market is of the opinion that they are toppish on current levels, especially the AUD and the NZD. The fact that the recent rally in AUD has mainly been the result of short position covering also points in this direction. Authorities in Australia and New Zealand are aware that their currencies are high, which have an impact on monetary policy. Furthermore, the market has already beaten up the USD as a result of the US political issues and the delay of Fed tapering. Investors have realized that the Fed tapering will come and the Australian and New Zealand economies are still looking vulnerable, because of their high dependence on commodity exports. In the options market, investors have set up more positions that profit from a lower AUD/USD and NZD/USD. This is a clear sign that investors start to take into account downside risks again. The direction is less clear for USD/CAD. Though the market may still have a preference for a higher USD/CAD. We continue to expect weakness in mainly AUD and NZD.


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