Weekly Eurozone – Only NOK profited from EUR sell-off

by: Georgette Boele

Last week, the Swedish krona (SEK) was the most out of favour compared to the Norwegian krone (NOK) and the Swiss franc (CHF). This was because of weaker domestic data. If Swedish economic data continue to come in weak, the SEK will likely remain on the defensive. This week, manufacturing data and the Riksbank’s minutes are especially in focus. In Norway economic data came in a touch better, especially the stronger retail sales had a positive impact on the NOK. The NOK also profited from the sell-off in the EUR (mentioned above). The CHF did relatively well last week. At the start of the week, the strength of the EUR pushed EUR/CHF higher. However, during the week the CHF recovered, especially after the stronger than expected Kof leading indicator and the weaker EUR. This reaction is somewhat odd, because the result did not materially change interest rate expectations. Moreover, the CHF is a safe-haven and not a cyclical currency. We keep our forecasts for a SEK and NOK recovery and weakness in CHF in place.


131104 - Eurozone FX EUR_SEK