Weekly FX – AUD/NZD/CAD modest weakness ahead

by: Georgette Boele

The AUD outperformed the NZD and CAD last week due to a stronger than expected inflation print. The AUD was also supported after comments from RBA deputy governor Lowe suggest that the central bank will remain on hold for the next few months to assess the effects of previous rate cuts. As such, we now expect the RBA to delay further monetary stimulus until early 2014. The NZD was weighed down after RBNZ governor Wheeler said that the strength in the currency will delay the move to tighten monetary policy. Meanwhile, the CAD eased lower after the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged at 1.0%, but unexpectedly removed its tightening bias. We have delayed our 2014 Q4 tightening expectations by one quarter to early 2015. Due to our change in views on the Fed and RBA, we have revised our forecasts for the end of this year to 0.94 (AUD/USD); 0.82 (NZD/USD) and 1.06 (USD/CAD). We have kept our year-end 2014 forecasts for AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD at 0.85, 0.78 and 1.08, respectively.