Weekly Eurozone – Less strong recovery of NOK and SEK this year

by: Georgette Boele

Last week, the Norges bank kept interest rates unchanged at 1.5% as widely expected. Governor Olsen said that inflation in September was lower than expected, but at the same time the krone has depreciated since the previous monetary policy meeting. The Norges bank is balancing record household debt burdens, high housing prices while trying to avoid krone appreciation. Because of this delicate balance, the market has pushed the NOK lower as rate hikes will be unlikely in the near future. We have changed our year-end forecast for 7.8 to 8.0 to reflect this dynamic. The Riksbank kept interest rates on hold as well at 1.0%. It predicted that inflation won’t reach its 2% target until the end of 2014. That will allow the bank to start raising rates at that time. We foresee a smaller SEK appreciation before year-end, because less strong global growth than we had earlier expected and sentiment to remain uncertain in the coming weeks. Our new year-end forecast is 8.5 (8.3). For EUR/CHF we kept our year-end forecast at 1.25 but USD/CHF has been adjusted to reflect a smaller USD appreciation.


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