Eurozone FX – Weak data press NOK and SEK lower

by: Georgette Boele

Economic data in Sweden have been weak. Inflation data pointed to lower inflationary pressures. In addition, the drop in industrial production was more substantial. As a result, the SEK has moved lower and the market has pushed out rate hike expectations. It indeed now seems unlikely that the Riksbank will increase official rates this year. In Norway economic data have also been soft, which has hurt the NOK. The substantially lower inflationary pressure had a significant impact on the NOK. The NOK weakened, because rate hike expectations were adjusted downwards as well. The Norges bank will also unlikely hike monetary policy this year. The Swiss franc has continued to ride wave of investor sentiment. During the week investor sentiment improved driven by hopes that US politicians will find a way out of the political impasse in time. As a result, EUR/CHF rallied modestly. We keep our forecasts in place for a recovery in SEK and NOK and weakness in CHF given our optimistic view on the global economy and investor sentiment.

131014 - Eurozone FX EUR_SEK