In the past quarter, China’s economy benefitted from the mini-stimulus and high credit growth rates reported at the beginning of the year. GDP growth, in the third quarter, picked up to 7.8% yoy up from 7.5% the previous quarter. External demand was also supportive, although September’s export data was somewhat weaker than expected. Meanwhile, other September data showed a slight moderation in growth. Retail sales grew by 13.3% yoy edging down from 13.4% yoy the previous month, fixed investment grew by 20.2% yoy down from 20.3% yoy and industrial production grew by 10.2% down from 10.4%. We think that GDP growth will slightly moderate in the fourth quarter, as recent data point to somewhat slower momentum. Next year, however, we expect economic activity to pick up on the back of a stronger global economy.
ChinaWatch GDP growth firms.pdf ()