Weekly: FX – A make-or-break week

by: Georgette Boele , Roy Teo

Since the risk of a US involvement in the Syria crisis increased, investor risk appetite has deteriorated. The move can be characterized as a classic risk off move with the USD, CHF and the JPY profiting. As a result, EUR/USD topped out and started to move lower. During the week, US GDP and initial jobless claims came in above expectations. This also supported the USD versus the EUR. This week will be a make-or-break week. First there will be more clarity on possible western military action in Syria. Moreover, important US data such the US employment report on Friday will set the tone for the September FOMC meeting. In addition, the ECB will decide on monetary policy. We expect US data to come in above market consensus making a September FOMC tapering very likely. This should provide strong support to the USD. We expect the ECB to sound dovish with the aim of easing interest rates expectations. This combination should push EUR/USD below 1.30, bringing it closer to our end of September target of 1.25.