This week will be one of the busiest weeks of the year in terms of economic events. Incoming data suggest that Wednesday’s Q2 GDP figures will be weak, with growth having slowed to a paltry 0.6%, following a 1.8% gain in output in Q1. In turn, this should prompt the Fed to wait with a tapering of its QE programmes until September. That said, we think that the labour market recovery gained some further momentum in July, and are looking for a 200k gain in nonfarm payrolls. A stronger labour market recovery should help the economy to accelerate again in the second half of the year.